Apricot Production Forecast of the Leading Countries in The Period of 2018-2025.
The aim of this study is to estimate apricot production quantities in 2018-2025 periods by using 1961-2017 data of the leading countries in apricot production in the world. 57-year data were obtained from FAOSTAT and analyzed with the help of the SAS 9.4 statistics program. In order to determine these predictions, ARIMA models have been used. In cases where the data is not stationary, the one-year delay was made and the most suitable ARIMA model was chosen according to AIC, BIC, SSE, MSE, MPE criteria. According to the 8-year average estimation based on 26 years of data, the share of countries in apricot production is formed by Turkey with 19%, Uzbekistan with 14%, Algeria with 7%, Iran with 6%, and Italy with 6%. Turkey ranked second after Spain in fresh apricot exports and first in the dried apricots although dried apricot export prices are less than Germany price currently, the government focusing on higher-quality types in fresh and dried apricots, France, and the Netherlands supplied dried apricots from Turkey.
Aydogdu, B. 2016. Economic analysis of Iğdır apricots. Serhat development agency report. Retrieved on February 23, 2020 from: https://www.serka.gov.tr/assets/upload/dosyalar/b80d962eb1d75b76c5fd97dcacff08f2.pdf.
Bartolini, S., R. Viti and R. Massai. 2018. Forty-year investigations on apricot blooming: Evidences of climate change effects. Sci. Hortic. 244: 399-405.
Batu, A., B. Kirmacı, and E. Akbulut. 2007. Apricot molasses production technique. Electronic journal of food technologies. 2: 53-57.
Benmeziane-Derradji, F., E. F. Derradji, and L. Djermoune-Arkoub. 2019. Antioxidant activities and beneficial health effects of some dried fruits commonly consumed in Algeria: a review. EMJE, 4: 1-16.
Box, G. E., G. M. Jenkins, G. C. Reinsel and G. M. Ljung. 2016. Time series analysis: forecasting and control. 5th Edition, John Wiley & Sons Inc. Hoboken: New Jersey, USA.
Çuhacı, Ç., F. E. Karaat, Y. Uğur, S. Erdoğan, and B. M. Asma. 2020. Fruit quality and biochemical characteristics of new early ripening apricots of Turkey. Journal of Food Measurement and Characterization, 15(1): 841-850.
Dellal, I. and A. A. Koç. 2003. An Econometric analysis of apricot supply and export demand in Turkey, Turk. J. Agric. For. 27: 313-321.
Demirel, O., K. Onder and S. A. Hatirli. 2017. Price transmission in world dried apricot market J. Fac. Econ. Admin. Sci. 22: 903-913.
Ding, G. X., B. M. Wang, G. J. Qin, Y. F. Chen, B. G. Wang, and P. F. Wen. 2018. A new technology for apricot frost disaster prevention. Acta Hortic, 1214, 131-136.
Egea, J., J., López-Alcolea, J. A. Campoy, J. A. Egea, and D. Ruiz. 2020. Global warming and breaking dormancy in apricot: some interesting related aspects. Acta Hortic. 1290, 213-216.
Esfandiarpour-Boroujeni, I., E. Karimi, H. Shirani, M. Esmaeilizadeh, and Z. Mosleh. 2019. Yield prediction of apricot using a hybrid particle swarm optimization-imperialist competitive algorithm-support vector regression (PSO-ICA-SVR) method. Sci. Hortic. 257: 108756.
Euromonitor, 2017. Analysis of priority markets for diversification of export of products from central Asia dried fruits, nuts, beans: market access strategies and recommendations Retrieved on February 29, 2020 from: https://www.giz.de/de/html/suchergebnisse.html?query=apricot&send_button_search=Suchen.
FAOSTAT. 2020. Fruit production in the World. Retrieved on February 29, 2020 from: http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QC.
Faust, M., D. Suranyi and F. Nyujto. 1998. Origin and dissemination of apricot. Hortic. Rev. Chapter 6, 22: 225-260, New York, USA.
Gunduz, O. 2010. Effect of exchange rate on dried apricot export in Turkey: A vector autoregression (VAR) analysis. Afr. J. Agric. Res. 5: 2485-2490.
Hasmida, H. 2009. Water Quality Trend at the Upper Part of Johor River in Relation to Rainfall and Runoff Pattern. (MS Thesis) Faculty of Civil Engineering, University Technology, Malaysia.
Hormaza, J. I. 2002. Molecular characterization and similarity relationships among apricot (Prunus armeniaca L.) genotypes using simple sequence repeats Theor. Appl. Genet. 104: 321-328.
ITC. 2019. Trade of fresh and dried apricots in 2014-2018 years. Retrieved on February 23, 2020 from:https://www.trademap.org/Country_SelProduct_TS.aspx?nvpm=1%7c%7c%7c%7c%7c0809%7c%7c%7c4%7c1%7c1%7c1%7c2%7c1%7c2%7c1%7c1.
Kadılar, C. 2009. Introduction to SPSS applied time series analysis, Bizim Büro publishing house, second edition, Ankara.
Karaat, F. E. 2018. Variation and Heritability of Phytochemical Characters in Some Apricot Cultivars and Hybrids Niğde Ömer Halisdemir University. (PhD Thesis) Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences, Department of Agricultural Genetic Engineering, Niğde, Turkey.
Karaat, F. E. and S. Serçe. 2019. Total phenolics, antioxidant capacities and pomological characteristics of 12 apricot cultivars grown in Turkey. Adyutayam, 7:46-60.
Karabacak, T. and A. S. Uzundumlu. 2020. Apricot production forecasts of the leading provinces in 2019-2025 periods. IBAD Journal of Social Sciences, Special Issue, 561-573.
Karahan, M. 2011. Statistical Demand Forecasting Methods: An Application of Product Demand Forecast with Artificial Neural Networks Method. (PhD Thesis) Selcuk University Institute of Social Sciences, Department of Business Administration, Konya, Turkey.
Karatas, F. and F. Kamisli. 2007. Variations of vitamins (A, C and E) and MDA in apricots dried in IR and microwave. J. Food Eng. 78: 662-668.
Kurtoglu, S. 2018. Estimation of Egg Production in Turkey for Years between 2018 and 2025 With ARIMA Model. (Master Thesis) Atatürk University Graduate School of Sciences, Department of Agricultural Economics, Erzurum, Turkey.
MAF. 2019. Apricot newsletter. Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry Publications. Retrieved on February 24, 2020 from: https://www.tarimorman.gov.tr/BUGEM/Belgeler/M%C4%B0LL%C4%B0%20TARIM/KAYISI%20ARALIK%20B%C3%9CLTEN%C4%B0.pdf.
Mech, A. 2017. Status of tea production in Assam: past trends and its future projections. JOLRC. 3: 45-56.
Metidji, N. 2016. Solar drying of agro-industrial wastes using a solar greenhouse. In 2016 International Renewable and Sustainable Energy Conference (IRSEC) (pp. 289-293.
Nabievich, I. N., K. M. Adilovna and R. Z. Khasanovich. 2016. Problems of export of Uzbekistan’s horticultural products. Eur. Sci. Rev 3-4: 312-313.
Olgun, A., H. Adanacioglu and K. Peker. 2003. A Research on Dried Apricot Production, Marketing Status and Alternative Marketing Opportunities in Turkey: The Case of Malatya Province, Malatya Apricot Research Development and Promotion Foundation Publications, Publication No: 5, Malatya, Turkey.
Pergola, M., A. Persiani, V. Pastore, A. M. Palese, A. Arous, and G. Celano. 2017. A comprehensive Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) of three apricot orchard systems located in Metapontino area Southern Italy. J. Clean. Prod. 142: 4059-4071.
Ramakrishna, G. and R. V. Kumari. 2018. ARIMA model for forecasting of rice production in India by using SAS. Siam J. Appl. Math. 6: 67-72.
SAS. 2014. SAS 13.2 User’s Guide the ARIMA procedure. SAS institute inc., cary, NC, USA. Retrieved on OcMAFer 6, 2019 from: https://support.sas.com/documentation/onlinedoc/ets/132/ARIMA.pdf.
Topcu, Y. and A. S. Uzundumlu. 2010. The present situation of fresh apricot in the World and Turkey. Turk. J. Sci. Rev. 3: 43-53.
Topuz, B. K., M. Bozoglu, U. Baser and N. A. Eroglu. 2018. Forecasting of apricot production of Turkey by using Box-Jenkins method. Turk. J. Forecast. 2: 20-26.
Ucar, K. and S. Engindeniz, 2018. A research on marketing of dried apricot in Malatya province Selcuk J. Agri. Food Sci. 32: 249-256.
UNDP. 2015. AKT (Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan) agro-food feasibility study draft main report. United nations development programme reports. Retrieved on February 16, 2020 from: https://www.iicpsd.undp.org/content/istanbul/en/home/library/AKTFeasibility.html.
Uzundumlu, A. S., M. E. Oksuz, and S. Kurtoglu. 2018. Future of fig production in turkey. J. Tekirdag Agri. Fac., 15: 138-146.
Yavuz, F., A. Bilgic, M. Terin and I. O. Guler. 2013. Policy implications of trends in Turkey's meat sector with respect to 2023 vision. Meat Sci. 95: 798-804.
Yildirim, A. 2019. Comparative analysis of demand prediction methods: an application in food sector. (PhD Thesis), İstanbul Kultur University, Graduate School of Education, Department of Business Administration, İstanbul, Turkey.
Yildirim, H. and B. Alkan, 2018. Suggestion of a macroeconomic uncertainty index for Turkey Bank. J. 104: 6-25.
Zaurov, D. E., T. J. Molnar, S. W. Eisenman, T. M. Ford, R. F., Mavlyanova, J. M Capik,., ... & J. C. Goffreda. 2013. Genetic resources of apricots (Prunus armeniaca L.) in Central Asia. HortScience. 48: 681-691.