Asymmetrical relationship between COVID-19 global fear index and agricultural commodity prices

Abstract

sectors such as energy, services and industry. In addition, they play an active role in the international agricultural markets. Therefore,
price structure in the grain and oilseed market is important for agriculture and many other sectors. This study was designed to reveal how
the fear of COVID-19 has globally affected grain prices. The study covered the one-year period from March 11, 2020, when COVID-19
was first recognized as a pandemic, to March 11, 2021. The Global Fear Index (GFI) and the price sub-indices created by the Grain Oil
Council were used to determine the impact of the fear caused by COVID-19 on grain prices. Assuming an asymmetrical relationship
between variables, the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag model was used to determine this relationship. According to the model
results, it was found that in the long term, agricultural commodity prices gave an increase (decrease) response to the positive (negative)
effects in the GFI, and that the effect of an increase in the GFI on agricultural commodity prices was greater than the effect of a decrease.
Accordingly, it is thought that the analysis and predictions which take into account the asymmetrical effect would give more realistic
results and thus contribute considerably to the market regulations. It will also help policymakers make more rational decisions in their
search for solutions to the problems in the cereal market.